随着油价降温，比特币反弹，但特朗普弹劾可能性显示市场仍紧张不安

Polymarket put the odds of President Donald Trump being impeached before his term ends at 64% on Apr. 7, near the contract's high-water mark since its Mar. 19 launch. A comparable Kalshi contract, which resolves against Library of Congress records and runs through Jan. 1, 2028, was priced around 67% in the same window. Driving the markets, beyond current events, are the Polymarket odds of the Democrats taking both the House and the Senate in the November mid-term elections. With odds above 80% of the House and 55% of the Senate, a genuine path to impeachment and removal from office in 2026 is now a genuine possibility. Together, the numbers compress a sprawling geopolitical saga for Bitcoin traders into a real-time political stress gauge, but the market regime that matters for BTC changed after Washington, Tehran, and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Related Reading Traders poured $3 billion into Binance after Bitcoin hit $72,734 on ceasefire headlines – what are they betting on? The buy spike was immediate, yet options signals look more like crash fear fading than a confident new breakout. Apr 8, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo Trump's Apr. 7 ultimatum to Iran had pushed Brent crude above $109 and WTI above $114 as markets priced the risk of a wider conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. That shock began to reverse after the ceasefire announcement. Oil fell sharply as markets repriced the immediate risk of a prolonged supply disruption, easing the macro pressure that had dominated the prior session. Bitcoin responded in the same direction as the broader risk complex. The asset rebounded as oil fell, Treasury yields eased, and equities rallied, reinforcing that the transmission mechanism for crypto still runs through energy, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve rather than through impeachment chatter itself. Axios reported renewed demands for the Cabinet to consider the 25th Amendment and a push