华尔街警告霍尔木兹的破坏尚未真正结束，比特币的反弹可能很脆弱

A two-week conditional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has forced a rapid rewrite of the Strait of Hormuz trade, but it has not fully restored the pre-war macro backdrop. Oil has fallen sharply from the panic highs, global equities have rallied, and Bitcoin has rebounded with them. That is a clear break from the pre-ceasefire view that markets were giving up on any near-term reopening. What has changed is the headline path for energy. What remains unresolved is the normalization path for physical flows, insurance, shipping, and inflation. Why this matters The market no longer has to price an immediate worst-case closure, but it still has to price a slower return to normal energy flows. That matters beyond oil traders because sticky fuel costs can keep inflation firmer, narrow the Fed’s room to ease, and leave Bitcoin trading as a macro risk asset rather than a clean safe-haven bet. JPMorgan, UBS, and U.S. government energy forecasters are still describing a slower repair process beneath the ceasefire headline. Their research no longer reads as a live argument against any reopening at all. It reads as a warning that reopening and normalization are different things. JPMorgan's base case still keeps oil elevated through the second quarter and warns that crude could top $150 if disruptions re-escalate or persist into mid-May. UBS expects the conflict to wind down , but says infrastructure damage means restoring production to pre-conflict levels will take considerably longer. The EIA says that full restoration of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz , even when the conflict concludes. None of those three institutions is describing a full snapback in energy-market plumbing, and that is now the central point for markets. The ceasefire has reduced immediate tail risk. It has not yet guaranteed normal cargo movement, normal inventories, or normal inflation pass-through. The Strait of Hormuz carried 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, equal to about