为什么量子实验室不会窃取你的比特币，因为坏人已经落后了几十年

The state of quantum computing and what it would take to threaten Bitcoin Quantum computing has advanced materially over the past 18 months , but the field remains in the transition from noisy hardware to early fault tolerance. The key shift is away from raw physical-qubit counts and toward logical qubits, gate fidelity, runtime, and error correction. That shift is important for Bitcoin because risk estimates are driven by logical qubits and fault-tolerant operations rather than headline hardware totals. Related Reading Google slashes quantum cracking estimates by 20X creating $600 billion countdown for Bitcoin and Ethereum Google used zero-knowledge proofs to verify quantum attack estimates without exposing the underlying attack circuits. Mar 31, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo What is the actual state of quantum computing advancement? Progress is visible across three fronts: below-threshold error correction, small logical-qubit demonstrations, and deeper circuits with lower noise. In late 2024, Google’s Willow chip demonstrated below-threshold error correction, in which error rates fell as the encoded system scaled up. IBM says its current systems can run certain circuits with more than 5,000 two-qubit gates and has published a roadmap to a 200-logical-qubit fault-tolerant system by 2029. Quantinuum has reported 48 error-corrected logical qubits and 64 error-detected logical qubits from 98 physical qubits, along with 50 error-detected logical qubits on Helios at better-than-break-even performance. Microsoft and Atom Computing reported 24 entangled logical qubits and computation with 28 logical qubits on neutral-atom hardware. The sector remains short of a large-scale fault-tolerant machine. That is one reason DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative exists. Its target is a quantum computer whose computational value exceeds its cost by 2033, and the agency is still validating competing architectures rather than certifying that any team has already reached that point. Wha