雷·达利奥 (Ray Dalio) 发表经济“战争论文”，显示美元兑比特币贬值

Ray Dalio's Apr. 9 TIME essay carries a geopolitical surface and a monetary argument underneath. Dalio explicitly writes that his indicators point to a simultaneous breakdown of the monetary order, some domestic political orders, and the geopolitical world order. The Iran conflict is the immediate trigger, but the structural claim below that is that investors expect conditions to stabilize quickly, underpricing the depth of the transition already underway. Dalio's July 2025 TIME essay “Defending the Value of Money” argued that the dispute between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell was fundamentally about the value of money. When debt burdens grow too large, the classic response is to push real rates down and devalue currency. In that same essay, he noted the dollar had fallen roughly 27% against gold and 45% against Bitcoin since the prior summer. His January 2026 LinkedIn post argued that the monetary, domestic political , and international geopolitical orders were all moving through a single Big Cycle, with the current phase representing the pre-breakdown transition. Dalio's April warning is another chapter in that argument. A timeline charts three Dalio essays from July 2025 to April 2026, tracing his argument from dollar devaluation through Big Cycle pre-breakdown to full monetary and geopolitical order collapse. What the breakdown means for hard money Once the frame moves from war shock to monetary-order transition, investors should start questioning which assets retain value as debt instruments appear less reliable and fiat systems look more politically exposed. In a June 2025 LinkedIn essay , “How Countries Go Broke,” Dalio laid out the allocation logic for holding underweight debt assets, an overweight in gold, and a small amount of Bitcoin. In an October 2025 TIME essay titled “Gold Is the Safest Money,” Dalio made the hierarchy explicit, describing gold as the monetary asset least at risk of devaluation or confiscation. Bitcoin's claim insi