研究表明，预测市场反映的是“少数知情者的智慧”，而不是大众的智慧
Burns Brief
5% 的知情交易者（包括做市商和熟练的接受者）在预测平台上获得了超过 30% 的利润，而约 67% 的用户承担了全部损失。市场参与者正在仔细权衡其影响，结果可能取决于更广泛的宏观条件和交易量。留意成交量确认——突破平均成交量将表明趋势可能会持续。
About 3.5% of informed traders, including market makers and skilled takers, capture over 30% of profits on prediction platforms, while about 67% of users absorb the entirety of losses.
Key Takeaways
- 5% of informed traders, including market makers and skilled takers, capture over 30% of profits on prediction platforms, while about 67% of users absorb the entirety of losses