随着永续期货将预测应用程序变成不间断的杠杆赌场，纽约对加密货币处以新的 3.4B 美元罚款

New York’s latest $3.4 billion legal barrage against crypto firms lands just as prediction platforms rush into perpetual futures, turning one-off political bets into 24/7 leveraged trading. That pivot could decide whether these apps are treated as useful risk-hedging tools or shut down as unlicensed casinos. Top prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket , are rushing to offer highly leveraged crypto derivatives at the exact moment state and federal authorities are clashing in court over whether the industry’s core products constitute illegal betting or legitimate financial instruments. Over the past year, these companies have gained national prominence by facilitating wagers on discrete, real-world occurrences, ranging from political races to macroeconomic data releases. Now, by preparing to list perpetual futures, which are complex contracts that never expire and allow traders to multiply their market exposure using borrowed funds, these platforms are blurring the line between niche forecasting hubs and full-service digital asset exchanges. Against this backdrop, this shift drastically expands their potential customer base, but it also amplifies the legal risks associated with the platforms. Why this matters : If prediction markets successfully bolt on high-leverage perpetuals, they stop being niche election-betting sites and start competing with major derivatives venues. That not only widens their customer base and fee pool, it also gives regulators a much bigger target as they decide whether these apps belong under gambling laws or federal market rules. Perpetuals push prediction venues toward full-time trading Historically, platforms like Kalshi operated on a cyclical, event-driven basis, with traffic and trading volume spiking around major catalysts such as a presidential debate or a championship sporting event and then plummeting once the outcome was settled. In this kind of market, a user purchased a binary “Yes” or “No” share, and the cont