比特币距离真正的牛市反弹还有21天吗？空头大量涌入，但现货需求正在回落

Bitcoin is stuck in a stand-off between traders and capital. Derivatives markets are still paying investors to stay short, even as spot buyers and ETF flows quietly push back. Bitcoin is approaching a point where the market may have to choose between two very different outcomes. Traders are still paying to stay short, yet price, ETF flows , and market leadership are no longer behaving as if the market were stuck in a collapse. In a recent X post , Alphractal analysts argued that Bitcoin funding rates had reached their most negative level since 2023 and said its proprietary models were pointing to a possible local bottom. Using its ‘Market Capitulation Oscillator and Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index', they argued that it had dropped into the same extreme zone that had previously appeared near major Bitcoin lows. In the chart below, the sentiment index falls into deep troughs around earlier cycle washouts, including the 2015 bear-market bottom, the late-2018 capitulation, and the 2022 low. The latest reading shows the indicator back in that same lower band, which supports the broader argument that market positioning has again reached an unusually stressed level. Market Capitulation Oscillator and Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index chart (Source: Alphractal) Thus, Bitcoin seems to be trading in a zone that has previously coincided with capitulation and eventual reversal. Other market data tells a similar story. Crypto.com said the seven-day average funding rate fell to roughly -0.008% on April 18, the weakest reading since 2023, while Glassnode said negative funding persisted even as Bitcoin stabilized and spot conditions improved. That leaves the market in an unusual state. Bitcoin may be emerging from a positioning washout that can support a tradable rebound, or the same macro pressures that drove the drawdown may still be strong enough to force one more deeper leg lower. CryptoSlate's Bitcoin price page shows BTC at $78,951 on April 22, up 12.37% over 30 days, wit