霍尔木兹石油危机蔓延至8个主要经济体，比特币只有一条途径

Bitcoin's path through 2026 now runs through global economic policy. The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has moved beyond a commodity-price event and into the machinery of governments. The International Energy Agency said crude and refined-product exports through the strait had fallen to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels after about 20 million barrels per day moved through the route in 2025, equal to roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. That is the scale of shock that stops being only a Brent chart. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects Middle East production shut-ins to average 7.5 million b/d in March, peak at 9.1 million b/d in April, and drive a 5.1 million b/d global inventory draw in the second quarter. It also sees Brent averaging $115 a barrel in 2Q26 before easing later in the year. For Bitcoin, the issue is whether markets treat the oil shock as a force that keeps inflation sticky and financial conditions tight, or as a shock severe enough to pull governments and central banks toward more support. That fork leaves Bitcoin with two defensible pathways into year-end: a stagflation-driven liquidity squeeze that pushes it back into high-beta collateral behavior, or a policy-accommodation trade that lets it reclaim its scarce-asset narrative. Related Reading Iran calls out “digital oil” trade amid volatile US-Iran ceasefire trading Iran just turned “digital oil” into a wartime target, and crypto’s role in global markets looks different now. Apr 20, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright The shock has moved into global economic policy The policy response is already visible. IEA members agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks, the largest coordinated release in the agency's history. The U.S. Department of Energy said the White House authorized 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with delivery expected to take about 120 days at planned discharge rates. Supply additions elsewhere do not change the