随着债券收益率触及 1998 年水平且比特币跌破 80,000 美元，全球金融危机担忧加剧

Is a global 2008-style economic crash nigh? And do current conditions resemble the early stages of a broader global financial crisis driven by debt costs, inflation pressure, and constrained policy responses? Those questions have become harder to dismiss because the pressure points are stacking in the wrong order: high sovereign yields , high public debt , an energy shock , sticky inflation , and stretched asset valuations . The world has echoes of 2008, but the policy setting is different. Banks are better capitalized than they were before the global financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve's latest financial-stability work still points to areas of resilience in household and bank balance sheets. Any 2020 analogy also breaks down: governments and central banks could then flood the system with support while inflation was muted. The setup is different because the rescue tradeoff is more expensive. Global public debt stood at just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to reach 100% by 2029 in the IMF's April Fiscal Monitor . The World Bank is warning that the Middle East war can push energy, food, fertilizer, and inflation higher. The Financial Stability Board has flagged sovereign bond markets, asset valuations, and private credit as areas that need close monitoring. The result is a credible, reasonable worst case, with inevitability still outside the evidence. Bitcoin waiting for a crash amid global market uncertainty Sovereign yields return to global financial crisis warning levels [Editor's Note: Intraday volatility was extremely high today, May 13. Snapshot used for this article was taken around 14.00 UTC] The bond market is where the question starts. Intraday government-bond data today, May 13, showed U.S. Treasurys at roughly 3.99%, 4.46%, and 5.03% across the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors. U.K. gilts were around 4.53%, 5.10%, and 5.78%. German Bunds were near 2.71%, 3.11%, and 3.63%. Japanese government bonds sat at around 1.40%, 2.59%, and 3.82%. T