比特币的反弹仍然只是熊市反弹，除非它重新回到这个关键水平

Bitcoin (BTC) moved from roughly $67,000 to $72,000 in the days surrounding the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire announcement, a 7.5% rebound that reduced volatility and lifted sentiment across risk assets. Glassnode's Apr. 8 Week On-chain report noted that the bounce and stabilization still fit the fingerprint of a bear market rebound. BTC still trades inside a bear market value zone, and the level that would genuinely flip the picture is $81,600. That number is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which is the aggregate breakeven price for Bitcoin bought in recent months. Glassnode identifies it as the line the market needs to reclaim before rallies can plausibly represent a durable move. Below it, recent buyers as a cohort carry losses, and the report says every rally into that range is apt to run into supply from trapped holders seeking to exit near breakeven. The ceasefire eased the macro shock, compressing the volatility of the options markets. Short-dated implied vol fell to the low 40s, and the 6-month tenor settled around 45%. Reuters reported on Apr. 9 that the truce already looked fragile, with oil rebounding and broader risk sentiment softening within a day of the announcement. Bitcoin's price fell below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis in early 2026 and now trades between the True Market Mean and Realized Price. Source: Glassnode Three numbers Glassnode's framework reduces to a clean progression, pointing to the $69,000-$71,500 zone as to where dealer positioning shows long gamma concentration, a mechanical structure that may help absorb near-term selling. Related Reading The Bitcoin network is currently a ghost town as price is being controlled elsewhere Fees, mempool pressure, and on-chain demand are telling a different story beneath the price recovery. Apr 9, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright With BTC trading slightly above $72,000 at press time, the market is above the top of that support shelf. The $78,000 True Market Mean sits 8.5% higher and represents the probabl