比特币的下一个风险隐藏在债务和流动性之间的差距中

The old Bitcoin playbook ran on the simple logic that when global M2 expands, capital flows into risk assets, and Bitcoin captures a disproportionate share. That relationship powered the 2020-2021 bull market, and crypto Twitter spent the better part of 2024 charting M2 overlays as proof that the next leg was imminent. Now, the global M2 has been expanding while Bitcoin has continued to underperform . Related Reading Bitcoin breaks from M2 money supply as dollar strength overrides global cash growth Liquidity is still expanding, but faster-moving dollar strength is tightening conditions before it reaches Bitcoin. Apr 1, 2026 · Gino Matos March 2026 US M2 printed at nearly $22.7 trillion, up 4.6% year over year, and Bitcoin spent much of the first quarter unable to hold above $76,000, a level that Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts identified as key resistance on CryptoQuant's Unbiased podcast. Coutts' diagnosis was that the transmission mechanism had changed, as the kind of liquidity now determines if the expansion actually reaches financial assets. In the post-2008 QE era, the Federal Reserve bought assets directly, flooding the system with bank reserves that had nowhere to go but into equities, credit, and eventually crypto. Today, Treasury issuance, reserve management, cash balance swings, and bank credit creation have replaced the central bank's balance-sheet firehose. US M2 grew 4.6% year over year by March 2026 while Bitcoin failed to hold above $76,000 resistance. The plumbing problem The US public debt closed the fourth quarter of 2025 at over $38.5 trillion , up 6.3% year over year. Meanwhile, US M2 grew by 4.6% over the same period . Based on the most basic numbers available, debt is outpacing broad money by nearly two percentage points annually. The debt stock now equals roughly 1.70x total M2 , a ratio with no modern precedent in a supposedly accommodative monetary environment. The Treasury's own borrowing estimates called for $574 billion in