中东震荡冲击债券市场，比特币 80,000 美元支撑位面临压力

Bitcoin’s latest test is coming from the bond market, not just the crypto market. Iran-linked attacks pushed oil above $100 and lifted Treasury yields toward the 4.5% zone, forcing traders to decide whether Bitcoin is still trading as a hedge against monetary disorder or as a risk asset exposed to tighter financial conditions. Iran's attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone strike on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone sent Brent crude to $114.44 and WTI to $106.42, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.44% and the 30-year broke above 5%. Bitcoin registered an intraday high of $80,717.66 on May 4, putting its macro identity to the test of being a hedge against monetary disorder or a liquidity-sensitive asset that struggles when yields rise, and cash becomes more attractive. When the 10-year approaches 4.5%, mortgage rates, equity valuations, and corporate borrowing all tighten with it. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.30% as of Apr. 30 , already up from 6.23% the week before. When war-driven yield moves pushed the 10-year to 4.39% in late March , that mortgage rate jumped to 6.38% and climbed to 6.46% as escalation fears intensified in early April. A poll of strategists had a median 12-month forecast for the 10-year yield of roughly 4.26%, and the market is already trading about 20 basis points above that level. About 20% of global oil and LNG supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which is why the market reaction spread immediately from crude into rates. Eurasia Group warned that without a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, US gasoline could reach $5 a gallon, while AAA's national average stood at $4.457 on May 4 . Both numbers frame the inflation risk that feeds into rate expectations and complicates the Fed's position. Why this matters Higher oil prices can keep inflation expectations elevated, while higher Treasury yields make cash and bonds more competitive against risk assets. That combination leaves Bitcoin facing tw