即使油价再次上涨创造新的格局，比特币价格仍飙升至 7.8 万美元——你需要知道什么

On Apr. 21, Brent crude price rose 5.4% and closed at $99.89, touching an intraday high of $102.16. The driver for this movement was that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stayed severely impaired, with reports noting that only three ships transited in the prior 24 hours, down from approximately 140 daily before the conflict began. The IEA's Fatih Birol called it the largest energy crisis in history and coordinated a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in March. The energy shock is already producing tangible side effects for financial markets , with March US retail sales beating expectations, driven largely by a 15.5% surge in gasoline station receipts tied to war-driven fuel prices. The oil shock connects to consumer-level inflation in concrete terms and reinforces what the rates market has already priced. Brent crude closed at $99.89 on April 21, rising 5.4% on the session and touching an intraday high of $102.16, as Hormuz traffic collapsed to three ships in 24 hours against a pre-conflict daily average of roughly 140. The rates channel This week, Bitcoin is trading on the probability that oil stays high long enough to keep inflation sticky, yields firm, and Fed rate cuts are delayed further than markets had anticipated. Fed funds futures had priced two quarter-point cuts by December as recently as late February. As of Apr. 21, futures were pricing only a 30% chance of a single 25 basis point cut for the full year. That repricing of the rate path traces directly to the war's effect on energy costs. On the same day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.313%, and the 2-year yield was 3.802%, both higher on the session. On Apr. 21, oil rose, the dollar strengthened, Treasury yields climbed, and Bitcoin stayed stuck. Even classical inflation hedges buckled, with gold dropping 2%, as higher real financing conditions and dollar strength overpowered the usual narrative. Deutsche Bank made the downstream risk explicit on an Apr. 17 call, arguing