Un initié de Washington prévient que la défaite américaine en Iran est désormais « probable » – ajoutant un nouveau risque macro pour Bitcoin

A prominent figure from the Washington foreign-policy establishment has said openly what markets have been pricing in fragments: the United States has likely suffered a strategic defeat in Iran , and the failure runs through the Strait of Hormuz. Accepting this premise would introduce a new macro risk for Bitcoin. The warning comes from an article by Robert Kagan in The Atlantic . Kagan sits inside the interventionist wing of U.S. foreign policy, the Project for the New American Century, and the broader doctrine that treated American military dominance as the organizing principle of the post-Cold War order. Kagan is not a fringe dissenter warning about imperial overreach from the outside. He helped define the intellectual framework behind the post-Cold War expansion of U.S. power . His work shaped the worldview that American military primacy could stabilize trade routes, contain adversaries, and preserve the liberal international order through sustained forward projection. That framework influenced both Republican and Democratic administrations across Iraq, Afghanistan, NATO expansion, and the broader interventionist consensus that dominated Washington for decades. When a figure within that architecture argues that the United States has likely suffered a strategic defeat in Iran, markets must treat it differently from routine geopolitical commentary. Thus, his position comes from inside the intellectual infrastructure that helped build the policy architecture now under stress. Kagan argues that Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but survivable for the U.S. position in the world. Iran is different because the loss sits inside a live energy chokepoint, inside the Gulf security architecture, and inside the credibility of U.S. military deterrence. The market question follows directly from that strategic diagnosis. If Washington’s own think-tank class now believes Iran has imposed a new operating reality in Hormuz, the downstream issue is whether oil, LNG, shipping, ins