Nueva York exige 3.400 millones de dólares en multas criptográficas: dentro de la lucha para convertir las aplicaciones de predicción en casinos con apalancamiento continuo
Burns Brief
Las principales plataformas del mercado de predicción, incluidas Kalshi y Polymarket, se apresuran a ofrecer derivados criptográficos altamente apalancados en el momento exacto en que las autoridades estatales y federales se enfrentan en los tribunales... La noticia ha sacudido a los participantes del mercado, con los bajistas buscando bajar los precios mientras los alcistas intentan defender niveles de soporte clave. Esté atento a la reacción del $ETH: un movimiento decisivo por encima o por debajo de niveles clave confirmará la próxima tendencia.
Top prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket , are rushing to offer highly leveraged crypto derivatives at the exact moment state and federal authorities are clashing in court over whether the industry’s core products constitute illegal betting or legitimate financial instruments. Over the past year, these companies have gained national prominence by facilitating wagers on discrete, real-world occurrences, ranging from political races to macroeconomic data releases. Now, by preparing to list perpetual futures, which are complex contracts that never expire and allow traders to multiply their market exposure using borrowed funds, these platforms are blurring the line between niche forecasting hubs and full-service digital asset exchanges. Against this backdrop, this shift drastically expands their potential customer base, but it also amplifies the legal risks associated with the platforms. Perpetuals push prediction venues toward full-time trading Historically, platforms like Kalshi operated on a cyclical, event-driven basis, with traffic and trading volume spiking around major catalysts such as a presidential debate or a championship sporting event and then plummeting once the outcome was settled. In this kind of market, a user purchased a binary “Yes” or “No” share, and the contract expired upon the event's resolution. Perpetual futures fundamentally alter that business model. Because these derivatives lack an expiration date, participants can maintain their market positions indefinitely, provided they meet ongoing margin requirements. The instruments frequently allow users to leverage their bets up to 50 times their initial capital, attracting aggressive speculators seeking rapid returns from minute price fluctuations. By rolling out these derivatives, Polymarket and Kalshi are abandoning their siloed event-contract operations to compete directly with centralized exchanges and retail brokerages. The underlying strategy for both platforms is to c
Key Takeaways
- Over the past year, these companies have gained national prominence by facilitating wagers on discrete, real-world occurrences, ranging from political races to macroeconomic data releases
- Against this backdrop, this shift drastically expands their potential customer base, but it also amplifies the legal risks associated with the platforms
- In this kind of market, a user purchased a binary “Yes” or “No” share, and the contract expired upon the event's resolution
- Perpetual futures fundamentally alter that business model
- Because these derivatives lack an expiration date, participants can maintain their market positions indefinitely, provided they meet ongoing margin requirements