Bitcoin wiederholt das Muster von 2022 – und dieses Mal fehlen uns die Käufer für das, was als nächstes kam
Burns Brief
30 Lesungen zeigen, dass Perpetual-Futures die Erholung von Bitcoin vorantreiben, während die Spot-Nachfrage immer noch zurückgeht. Die Marktstimmung dreht sich ins Positive, wobei Händler und Analysten auf eine mögliche Folgedynamik in den kommenden Sitzungen hinweisen. Achten Sie auf die Reaktion von $BTC $ETH – eine entscheidende Bewegung über oder unter wichtige Niveaus wird den nächsten Trend bestätigen.
CryptoQuant's latest Apr. 30 read shows that perpetual futures are driving Bitcoin's recovery, while spot demand is still shrinking. That is the same market structure seen during the 2022 bear market rallies, when leverage-driven rebounds gave way to fresh downside. Spot buying through exchanges, ETFs, or direct on-chain accumulation represents committed capital. At the same time, perpetual futures allow traders to take directional exposure with borrowed capital, often at multiples of their collateral, without holding the underlying asset. When both forms of demand expand together, a rally tends to be self-reinforcing. When futures lead and spot lags, leveraged traders finance the bounce and face forced exits if the price moves against them. The 2022 comparison Several bear-market rallies in 2022 shared the same regime, with perpetual futures demand recovering before spot demand did. The price bounced, and leveraged positions came off as spot buyers proved too thin to absorb the selling. The bounces looked constructive, but each one resolved into the next leg lower. CryptoQuant charts show Bitcoin's April 2026 demand split, perpetual futures rising while spot contracts, mirrors 2022's failed bear-market rally structure. CryptoQuant's chart places Bitcoin's current April 2026 move back into a regime where spot contracts are contracting while futures contracts are expanding. The parallel is that borrowed capital is reappearing before real cash demand does, which is precisely the condition that made 2022's failed rallies fragile. The scale of today's futures market makes that fragility a larger variable. CoinGlass data showed $47.64 billion in 24-hour Bitcoin futures volume versus $4.07 billion in spot volume, a ratio of about 11.7x, with open interest at roughly $54.19 billion as of Apr. 30. Perpetual futures can involve borrowed capital up to 50 times the collateral on some platforms, meaning relatively small price moves can trigger large forced liquidations. When sp
Key Takeaways
- 30 read shows that perpetual futures are driving Bitcoin's recovery, while spot demand is still shrinking
- That is the same market structure seen during the 2022 bear market rallies, when leverage-driven rebounds gave way to fresh downside
- Spot buying through exchanges, ETFs, or direct on-chain accumulation represents committed capital
- At the same time, perpetual futures allow traders to take directional exposure with borrowed capital, often at multiples of their collateral, without holding the underlying asset
- When both forms of demand expand together, a rally tends to be self-reinforcing