Prediction markets reflect 'wisdom of an informed minority,’ not crowd: Study

Burns Brief

5% of informed traders, including market makers and skilled takers, capture over 30% of profits on prediction platforms, while about 67% of users absorb the entirety of losses Market participants are carefully weighing the implications, with the outcome likely to depend on broader macro conditions and volume. Watch for volume confirmation — a breakout above average volume would signal the trend is likely to continue.