Global financial crisis fears grow as bond yields hit 1998 levels and Bitcoin drops below $80,000

Is a global 2008-style economic crash nigh? And do current conditions resemble the early stages of a broader global financial crisis driven by debt costs, inflation pressure, and constrained policy responses? Those questions have become harder to dismiss because the pressure points are stacking in the wrong order: high sovereign yields , high public debt , an energy shock , sticky inflation , and stretched asset valuations . The world has echoes of 2008, but the policy setting is different. Banks are better capitalized than they were before the global financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve's latest financial-stability work still points to areas of resilience in household and bank balance sheets. Any 2020 analogy also breaks down: governments and central banks could then flood the system with support while inflation was muted. The setup is different because the rescue tradeoff is more expensive. Global public debt stood at just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to reach 100% by 2029 in the IMF's April Fiscal Monitor . The World Bank is warning that the Middle East war can push energy, food, fertilizer, and inflation higher. The Financial Stability Board has flagged sovereign bond markets, asset valuations, and private credit as areas that need close monitoring. The result is a credible, reasonable worst case, with inevitability still outside the evidence. Bitcoin waiting for a crash amid global market uncertainty Sovereign yields return to global financial crisis warning levels [Editor's Note: Intraday volatility was extremely high today, May 13. Snapshot used for this article was taken around 14.00 UTC] The bond market is where the question starts. Intraday government-bond data today, May 13, showed U.S. Treasurys at roughly 3.99%, 4.46%, and 5.03% across the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors. U.K. gilts were around 4.53%, 5.10%, and 5.78%. German Bunds were near 2.71%, 3.11%, and 3.63%. Japanese government bonds sat at around 1.40%, 2.59%, and 3.82%. The historical comparison is critical here. Nasdaq previously marked U.S. 2-year yields at the highest since 2007, when they reached 4%. U.K. 2-year gilts are at the highest levels since June 2008, while U.K. 10-year yields are near 18-year highs, and 30-year gilts are near levels associated with 1998. Germany's 10-year Bund is close to its highest level since May 2011, during the eurozone debt crisis. Japan's 10-year yield has reached levels last seen in 1997, with the 2-year yield at levels last seen in 1995. China is the exception. Its 10-year government bond yield was around 1.74% on May 13, with the 2-year near 1.27% and the 30-year near 2.24%, according to Trading Economics . That curve points to a different growth and price backdrop, splitting the story into high-yield stress in developed markets and low-yield growth pressure in China. The developed-market side still carries the bigger fiscal problem. The OECD's 2026 debt work shows heavy sovereign borrowing and refinancing needs across its member economies. Higher yields roll into auctions, coupon costs, and political choices over time. The longer the long end stays elevated, the more the market forces governments to choose between higher interest bills, reduced spending flexibility, and larger deficits. In 2008, aggressive monetary rescue and balance-sheet support helped stabilize the financial system. In 2020, fiscal and monetary expansion bridged a sudden collapse in activity. In 2026, the debt stock is bigger, long-end yields are higher, inflation risk is visible, and an energy shock is already inside the data. Hormuz turns oil risk into policy risk The Strait of Hormuz is the main pressure point because it turns a regional conflict into a global cost shock. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that roughly 20 million barrels per day moved through the strait in 2024, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The agency also estimated that 84% of crude oil and condensate and 83% of LNG moving through Hormuz went to Asian markets that year. The current shock has moved into official price and supply forecasts. In its May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook , the EIA described Hormuz as effectively closed to shipping traffic, said Brent averaged $117 per barrel in April, and assessed Middle East production shut-ins around 10.5 million barrels per day that month. The agency assumes flows begin to resume from late May or early June, but that assumption is itself one of the live risk variables. The World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook puts the macro channel in plain terms. Energy prices are projected to surge 24% this year, Brent is forecast at $86 per barrel in the baseline, and a severe-disruption scenario could push Brent as high as $115. Fertilizer prices are projected to rise 31%, driven by a 60% jump in urea. The same report warns that higher commodity prices will lift inflation and weaken growth, especially in developing economies that already have