Bitcoin’s rebound may be fragile as Wall Street warns Hormuz disruption is not really over

A two-week conditional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has forced a rapid rewrite of the Strait of Hormuz trade, but it has not fully restored the pre-war macro backdrop. Oil has fallen sharply from the panic highs, global equities have rallied, and Bitcoin has rebounded with them. That is a clear break from the pre-ceasefire view that markets were giving up on any near-term reopening. What has changed is the headline path for energy. What remains unresolved is the normalization path for physical flows, insurance, shipping, and inflation. Why this matters The market no longer has to price an immediate worst-case closure, but it still has to price a slower return to normal energy flows. That matters beyond oil traders because sticky fuel costs can keep inflation firmer, narrow the Fed’s room to ease, and leave Bitcoin trading as a macro risk asset rather than a clean safe-haven bet. JPMorgan, UBS, and U.S. government energy forecasters are still describing a slower repair process beneath the ceasefire headline. Their research no longer reads as a live argument against any reopening at all. It reads as a warning that reopening and normalization are different things. JPMorgan's base case still keeps oil elevated through the second quarter and warns that crude could top $150 if disruptions re-escalate or persist into mid-May. UBS expects the conflict to wind down , but says infrastructure damage means restoring production to pre-conflict levels will take considerably longer. The EIA says that full restoration of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz , even when the conflict concludes. None of those three institutions is describing a full snapback in energy-market plumbing, and that is now the central point for markets. The ceasefire has reduced immediate tail risk. It has not yet guaranteed normal cargo movement, normal inventories, or normal inflation pass-through. The Strait of Hormuz carried 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne oil trade. It also handled 11.4 billion cubic feet per day of LNG, more than 20% of global LNG trade. U.S. intelligence assessed on April 3 that Iran showed on the strait, because control over global energy flows is Tehran's primary card. That assessment mattered more before the ceasefire than it does now as a directional market call, but it still matters as a structural reminder that formal de-escalation does not automatically produce free navigation without friction. Institution / actor Current timeline / base case Key forecast / assessment What it implies for oil What it implies for markets JPMorgan Ceasefire lowers immediate tail risk, but disruption risk extends through Q2; partial normalization remains the base path Oil can stay elevated through Q2 and could top $150 again if disruption persists into mid-May or the ceasefire fails Crude can fall from panic highs without returning quickly to pre-shock pricing Relief rally now, but inflation and rate-cut pressure can linger UBS Conflict may cool in coming weeks, but recovery lasts longer Infrastructure damage means restoring production to pre-conflict levels takes considerably longer Energy markets loosen before they normalize Risk assets recover first, macro normalization follows later if at all EIA Full restoration takes months even after conflict ends Flows, routes, and output normalize slowly; retail fuel pain lingers Oil and fuel prices can stay elevated after a nominal reopening Consumer-price pressure lasts beyond the ceasefire headline U.S. intelligence Iran still sees chokepoint control as strategic leverage Tehran views energy-flow control as a core bargaining lever Lower confidence in a frictionless reopening Markets retain a geopolitical risk premium beneath the relief move Ceasefire backdrop Immediate escalation risk has eased, but durability remains unproven Markets can price reopening faster than shipping systems can normalize Crude loses the panic premium first; physical tightness can linger longer Relief rally in risk assets is justified, but the macro all-clear is not yet confirmed Physical oil markets are still the place to watch for whether reopening becomes normalization. The ceasefire has eased the headline shock, but prompt cargo pricing, insurance terms, and routing friction remain more informative than front-month futures alone. Earlier this week, North Sea Forties crude hit $146.09 per barrel, Dated Brent reached $141.365, and some prompt cargoes traded above $150, while European jet fuel hit $226.40 and diesel $203.59. Brent futures were near $110 at the peak of the panic. That gap between prompt physical and the headline futures screen is still where the inflation transmission lives. In Morgan Stanley's consumer math, a 10% rise in oil prices from a supply shock lifts U.S. headline consumer prices by roughly 0.35% over the next three months, with real consumption starting to and staying dep