Bitcoin seems ready to push past $70k but one group keeps stopping the rally

Bitcoin is pushing back toward $70,000 as macro pressure eases, but each attempt is still being sold into. The market is improving on the outside while failing to resolve a key internal constraint. Macro relief improves the backdrop as Bitcoin meets a crowded zone above $70,000 Bitcoin has opened April with a cleaner macro backdrop than the one that defined the final stretch of March. The war premium in crude eased after reports that the U.S. could leave Iran within weeks if a peace deal advances, a shift that pushed Brent down to $99.44 and WTI to $97.55 . Currency markets reflected the same cooling impulse, with the Dollar Index sliding to 99.534. Rates softened into the week’s main U.S. macro event, with the 2-year Treasury yield near 3.76% and the 10-year near 4.28%. That combination has historically improved the operating environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Price responded in kind. Bitcoin price traded around $68,724 on April 1, after swinging through an intraday range between roughly $66,000 and $69,2000. Those numbers look contained at the daily close, although the structure under the surface carries more tension than a flat range suggests. The market has moved away from outright macro panic, while it has yet to secure the kind of broad, persistent demand that turns relief into expansion. The result is a compressed setup, where a friendlier external backdrop meets thinner conviction near a heavily traded resistance zone. Why this matters: It separates environment from execution. Macro conditions are becoming more supportive, but price is still failing at the same level. That gap typically resolves in one of two ways: either demand expands enough to absorb supply, or repeated rejection turns into a deeper pullback. The next move depends on which side gives first. The key level in that equation remains $70,000. Glassnode’s recent market analysis shows Bitcoin struggling to secure clean closes above that area since early February. The same report shows realized profit momentum contracting by roughly 63%, a signal that the willingness to chase higher prices has cooled. The pressure point comes from the group of recent buyers' trading decisions. Glassnode identifies the cost basis of holders with coins aged 1 week to 1 month at around $70,000, placing a dense block of supply directly overhead. When price revisits that zone, participants who bought the breakout often become sellers on a return to breakeven. Repeated rejection can emerge from that structure even when the macro background improves. This leaves Bitcoin in an unusually clear weekly frame. Oil has backed away from the highs, the dollar has softened, and yields have eased. Each of those shifts reduces one layer of pressure. Yet the move above $70,000 still requires fresh demand capable of absorbing supply from recent entrants and late breakout buyers. That requirement sits at the center of the market’s current posture. Stronger macro conditions have reopened the door for another push higher. Market structure still requires proof. The next stage depends on how these layers interact. A cooler geopolitical premium in crude can continue to ease inflation stress. A softer dollar can improve liquidity conditions at the margin. Lower yields can support broad risk appetite. Bitcoin still trades through its own internal constraint, which is the concentration of overhead supply close to the breakout zone. In that sense, the market enters the week with a better external environment and a more difficult internal test. That distinction shapes the setup around Friday’s payrolls release and the weekend that follows. Neutral funding, compressed volatility, and lighter leverage leave Bitcoin waiting for a conviction shift The strongest fresh signal inside crypto comes from the derivatives complex. During stronger directional advances, perpetual funding usually leans clearly positive as traders pay to hold long exposure. That posture has faded. Data from Coinalyze shows Bitcoin open interest near $20.1 billion , with average funding around -0.0046% and predicted funding near +0.0002%. That mix describes a derivatives market close to neutral. The positive carry that often accompanies crowded bullish positioning has thinned sharply. The reset carries two implications. First, leverage has already been cleaned out to a meaningful degree. Second, the market is no longer leaning heavily enough in one direction to make the next move obvious from funding alone. That reset becomes more important when paired with recent liquidation activity. Coinalyze places 24-hour liquidations near $48.6 million, a relatively modest figure given the range Bitcoin has traded through over the last several sessions. Post-liquidation markets often enter a cleaner positioning state, where the next move can develop with fewer forced participants in the way. A reduction in open interest after leverage flushes also changes the character of the market. The move that follows often emer