Bitcoin bulls are eyeing $100,000, yet the futures market hints at another dip first

Bitcoin traders are rebuilding bets on a move toward $80,000 as easing geopolitical tensions, firmer institutional demand, and a rebound above $70,000 revive appetite for upside exposure after weeks of defensive positioning. On Coinbase-owned Deribit , the largest venue for crypto options, the $80,000 call has become the single biggest strike by open interest this week, with around $1.5 billion tied up in contracts that pay off if Bitcoin rises above that level. Related Reading Coinbase agrees to acquire Deribit in landmark $2.9 billion deal Coinbase looks to expand offshore derivatives market presence amid favorable U.S. regulatory climate. May 8, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright This is also evident on the on-chain options platform, Derive, where open interest at the $85,000 strike has climbed to about $60 million, while $100,000 calls stand near $45 million. The shift marks a notable change in tone after a stretch in which traders spent much of their energy buying protection against another leg lower. However, Bitcoin has since recovered from early-week lows near $67,000, trading above $70,000, helped by a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran that eased pressure on oil and steadied broader risk sentiment. Nonetheless, the market has not fully let its guard down, as downside protection remains bid across longer maturities, and parts of the futures market continue to lean defensive. Options traders rotate back to upside The strongest evidence of improved market sentiment has come from traders reworking their positions after the ceasefire announcement. On April 8, Deribit Insights revealed that one of the dominant structures into Easter involved buying April 24 puts at the $61,000 and $62,000 strikes, a sign that investors were still preparing for a deeper washout. However, after the geopolitical headlines improved, those positions were rolled up on a premium-neutral basis into the $65,000 and $66,000 strikes, cutting downside notional by more than half. At the same time, traders bought an April 10 call condor spanning $74,000 to $80,000 to position for near-term upside. That repositioning was also reflected in the options surface. In maturities of less than seven days, skew moved from favoring puts toward a flatter profile as demand for calls returned. Implied volatility, which had firmed into the Trump deadline, held up even as prices rallied, allowing long-gamma holders to exit positions with gains tied to both price direction and volatility. Related Reading Why traders poured $3 billion into Binance as Bitcoin soared on ceasefire headlines The buy spike was immediate, yet options signals look more like crash fear fading than a confident new breakout. Apr 8, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo Glassnode said volatility compression has deepened across the curve, with front-end implied volatility dropping into the low 40s as immediate stress pricing unwinds. Bitcoin's Implied Volatility (Source: Glassnode) The firm said the ceasefire reinforced expectations for a quieter short-term backdrop, even though overall positioning remains light and cheaper options could draw fresh activity into upcoming macro events. Ceasefire relief eases one pressure point The macro backdrop helps explain why the crypto market was willing to shift into more bullish bets. Market observers noted that Bitcoin’s recent recovery came alongside a move lower in oil after the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran reduced fears of a deeper supply shock in the Middle East. Lower oil prices eased one of the more immediate inflation risks facing global markets and helped steady sentiment across risk assets. For Bitcoin, the move mattered because the market had spent weeks trading more like a macro-sensitive asset. Traders were watching oil, bond yields, and Fed expectations alongside crypto-specific indicators. Related Reading Bitcoin holds as Trump’s Iran deadline lifts oil and raises risk of a sharper move Bitcoin is holding support for now, but rising oil is making the next move more fragile. Apr 7, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo So, a pause in geopolitical escalation gave them a reason to reduce some of the defensive positioning that had built up during the conflict. However, the macro picture is still mixed. The latest US consumer price index showed inflation at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, while the monthly index rose 0.9%, the largest increase since mid-2022. Those figures kept pressure on expectations for aggressive Fed easing. Markets are now pricing about a 30% chance of at least a quarter-point rate cut in December. These developments leave enough room for relief rallies when geopolitical pressure eases, and oil stops driving the inflation debate higher. Bitcoin’s options market appears to be trading that window. The concentration of interest at $80,000, $85,000, and even $100,000 reflects a market willing to price a test of higher levels if macro pressure continues to fade. On-chain price models help explain why those