توقف عن القلق بشأن التهديد الكمي للبيتكوين - لماذا لن تقوم Google أو IBM أو Microsoft بسرقة BTC، وسوف تتأخر الجهات الفاعلة السيئة لعقود من الزمن

The state of quantum computing and what it would take to threaten Bitcoin Quantum computing has advanced materially over the past 18 months , but the field remains in the transition from noisy hardware to early fault tolerance. The key shift is away from raw physical-qubit counts and toward logical qubits, gate fidelity, runtime, and error correction. That shift is important for Bitcoin because risk estimates are driven by logical qubits and fault-tolerant operations rather than headline hardware totals. Related Reading Google slashes quantum cracking estimates by 20X creating $600 billion countdown for Bitcoin and Ethereum Google used zero-knowledge proofs to verify quantum attack estimates without exposing the underlying attack circuits. Mar 31, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo What is the actual state of quantum computing advancement? Progress is visible across three fronts: below-threshold error correction, small logical-qubit demonstrations, and deeper circuits with lower noise. In late 2024, Google’s Willow chip demonstrated below-threshold error correction, in which error rates fell as the encoded system scaled up. IBM says its current systems can run certain circuits with more than 5,000 two-qubit gates and has published a roadmap to a 200-logical-qubit fault-tolerant system by 2029. Quantinuum has reported 48 error-corrected logical qubits and 64 error-detected logical qubits from 98 physical qubits, along with 50 error-detected logical qubits on Helios at better-than-break-even performance. Microsoft and Atom Computing reported 24 entangled logical qubits and computation with 28 logical qubits on neutral-atom hardware. The sector remains short of a large-scale fault-tolerant machine. That is one reason DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative exists. Its target is a quantum computer whose computational value exceeds its cost by 2033, and the agency is still validating competing architectures rather than certifying that any team has already reached that point. Wha