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Japan reportedly stepped into the currency market with roughly $35 billion of yen buying, sending the dollar down nearly 3% to 155.5. Bank of Japan (BOJ) money-market data imply that size is accurate. Once the Ministry of Finance's monthly release confirms it, this would rank as Japan's first official yen-support action in almost two years and the second-largest on record. The BOJ's own April outlook projects CPI excluding fresh food at 2.5% to 3.0% in fiscal 2026, and economists expect inflation to re-accelerate as oil and yen weakness amplify import costs. The numbers show that 95% of Japan's crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the BOJ's baseline scenario assumes Dubai crude will trend toward $70-$80, with no major supply disruption. Tokyo's political tolerance for importing inflation while the yen slides has limits, and those limits were broken this week. USD/JPY peaked at 160.7 on April 29 before Japan's reported $35 billion intervention drove the pair down to 155.5. The BOJ held its policy rate at 0.75% on Apr. 28, with three board members dissenting and arguing for a 1% rate. The Fed also held its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% on Apr. 29 . That short-rate reality of roughly 275 to 300 basis points is the mechanical reason the carry trade keeps rebuilding. Yen borrowing costs stay low by almost any global comparison, and the spread to US yields makes it attractive to put that capital to work in higher-returning assets. Intervention without rate convergence only buys time. Reuters reported that 65% of economists in an Apr. 16 poll expect the BOJ to reach 1.0% by the end of June 2026 , with further hikes penciled in through 2027. Why the yen is everyone's problem BIS data from its 2025 triennial survey shows the yen accounted for 16.8% of all foreign exchange trades worldwide. Another BIS study on the August 2024 episode estimated yen-funded carry trades at roughly $250 billion, before that unwind, while UBS estimated the total near $500 billion, with